All the hue and cry about a “graceful” (immediate) withdrawal from Iraq appeals to the emotions, but it fails to take into account what our world would be like if Iran’s oil wealth is doubled and they indeed develop nuclear weapons.
Five of the world’s top six oil reserves are in Middle Eastern countries, and those five countries account for 55% of the global oil supply. Iran controls 10%. A US withdrawal from a Shiite controlled Iraq would put another 9% under de facto Iranian control.
If Iran leveraged that oil revenue to destabilize Saudi Arabia (20.4%), the amount of oil under Iranian control would double. If Saudi fell, Kuwait (7.9%) and the UAE (7.6%) would be easy.
A nuclear Iran with a stranglehold on the world’s oil supply. That is not a world we want to live in.